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Over the coming months, the U.S. Demography Bureau will curlicue out the results of the 2020 census, its once-a-decade headcount that volition give us precise details on the size, growth, historic period, and racial-indigenous makeup of the nation's population. In the lead-upwardly to that over the past year, the Bureau has released the results of other large surveys and studies, which I have analyzed to pinpoint key demographic trends that the decennial census is likely to confirm.

These trends include an unprecedented stagnation in population growth, a continued decrease in Americans' geographical mobility, more pronounced population aging, a first-time decline in the size of the white population, and ascension racial and ethnic diversity among millennials, Gen Z, and younger groups, which at present comprise a bulk of the nation's residents. Below, I epitomize those trends and conclude past examining alternative Census Agency projections that reinforce the crucial role clearing will play in futurity population growth.

Unprecedented stagnation in population growth

For much of the recent by, the U.S. has been one of the most rapidly growing countries in the industrialized world. This was specially true in the concluding half of the 20th century, due to the post-World State of war II babe smash and rising immigration in the 1980s and 1990s. The initial results from the 2020 Demography testify the second smallest decade-long growth in America's history.

Recently released Census Bureau population estimates show that from July one, 2019 to July 1, 2020, the nation grew by just 0.35%. This is the lowest annual growth charge per unit since at least 1900.

National population growth began to dip later on 2000, especially subsequently the Great Recession and, in recent years, due to new immigration restrictions. However the 2019-to-2020 charge per unit is well below most growth rates over the past 102 years, and less than half the level observed as recently as 2000.

Role of this precipitous turn down tin can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought more than deaths and further immigration restrictions. Even so, the entire 2010s decade was one of fewer births, more deaths, and uneven immigration. Low natural increment levels (a result of the aging of the population) will likely continue regardless of federal policy, suggesting that only increased clearing can become a commuter of U.S. growth.

Continued decrease in geographic mobility

Another indicator of the nation'due south demographic stagnation is its low level of geographical mobility. In the year before COVID-xix swept the country, a smaller share (nine.iii%) of Americans inverse residence than in any year since 1947, when the Demography Bureau first started collecting annual migration statistics. This was calculated from the Census Agency's Current Population Survey Almanac Social and Economic Supplement, which tin be used to track residents' relocations through March 2020.

U.S. migration trends have shown a fairly consequent pass up since the economically prosperous late-1940s to 1960s, when approximately one-5th of Americans changed residence annually. By the late 1990s, only about 15% to 16% of the population moved each year, dropping to 13% to 14% in the early 2000s. Migration dropped fifty-fifty further—to the 11% to 12% range—later the Slap-up Recession, reflecting the immediate impact of housing and labor market crashes. Since 2012, information technology has connected dropping to final twelvemonth'southward new low of 9.three%.

Recent migration declines occurred amid both local, within-county moves (which are largely fabricated for housing and family reasons) equally well as for longer-distance moves between labor markets—though in that location was a sharper decline in the former. A good part of these declines occurred among young adult millennials, many of whom remained "stuck in place" even in the late 2010s.

It is certainly possible that mobility rates could tick up in the 2020-to-2021 period because of COVID-19-related migration abroad from cities or moving back in with family members. Nevertheless such moves might be temporary at best, and there is a clear possibility that the long-term stagnation in the nation'southward geographic mobility over the past decade could reemerge equally the pandemic subsides.

A pronounced aging of the population

The 2020 demography will also highlight the precipitous growth separate between the one-time and the young in America, as suggested by estimates from the Census Bureau's National Demographic Assay. They prove that betwixt 2010 and 2020, the number of people over age 55 grew past 27%, which is 20 times larger than the growth rate of the commonage population under 55 (i.3%). The largest driver of this divide is the babe boomer generation, who passed the age of 65 during the past decade, increasing the size of the 65- to 74-twelvemonth-old age group past a one-half.

Among the younger generations, millennials helped power the small-scale growth of the 25- to 34-year-old population, though the smaller generations post-obit them tamp this growth rate downward to close to zero.

We can expect all states, metro areas, and most counties to show gains in their 55-and-older populations. Even in demographically stagnating areas, the "aging in place" of the baby boomer generation inside them will lead to population growth for seniors.

The story is much different for the younger population. With their national growth charge per unit at nearly cipher, migration—either in or out—will decide if an area registers a proceeds or loss of young people. This is reflected in Census Bureau estimates for 2010-to-2020 state changes in under-18 populations: Fully 31 states register losses in their youth population, including large swaths of the Northeast, Midwest, and interior South.

In contrast, 19 states and Washington, D.C. evidence population gains in young people, largely due to the in-migration (from outside the land and from other states) of youth and families with children. While the nation as a whole is facing heightened age dependency (the increased ratio of senior retirees to the working young), these places may exist in a better position to eternalize their hereafter immature labor forces.

A first-time decline in the nation'due south white population

The most recent Census Bureau estimates by race prove a small decline of 16,612 in the nation's white population over the 2010-to-2019 menstruum. If this trend is confirmed with the full 2020 census, the 2010-to-2020 decade would be the only decade since the beginning census was taken in 1790 when the white population did not abound.

This refuse in the white population is a major driver of the nation'southward demographic stagnation. White population gains in recent decades have grown smaller over time, from 11.two million between 1970 and 1980 down to 2.8 one thousand thousand between 2000 and 2010. Just a white population loss between 2010 and 2020 would be unprecedented.

The white population decline is largely attributable to its older historic period construction when compared to other race and ethnic groups, leading to fewer births and more than deaths relative to its population size. In 2019, the median age for white Americans was 43.7, compared to 29.8 for Latino or Hispanic Americans, 34.6 for Black Americans, 37.5 for Asian Americans, and twenty.9 for persons identifying as 2 or more than races. While white fertility may have taken an accentuated dip due to delayed wedlock and childbearing for millennials—whose lives connected to impacted by the Peachy Recession—the long-term reject projected in the white population is due to its increased aging.

This means that other racial and indigenous groups are responsible for generating overall population growth. The U.S. grew past a total of nineteen.5 million people between 2010 and 2019. Latinos or Hispanics contributed 10 million people to that total—over one-half of the nation'south growth. Asian Americans, Black Americans, and persons of two or more races contributed iv.3 million, 3.2 meg, and i.seven 1000000 people, respectively. These groups constituted the main engines of the nation's growth, and are likely to practise the same going forward.

Greater racial diversity among millennials and Gen Z

Demography Agency population estimates released last year revealed that more than than half of the nation'south total population are at present members of the millennial generation or younger. And while these younger generations—born in 1981 or after—are not growing every bit rapidly as older historic period groups, they are far more racially diverse.

One reason for this is that the white population declines discussed to a higher place are more than pronounced among the young. Since 2000, the under-18 white population registered absolute population losses. Meanwhile, millennials and their juniors were built-in during years of higher immigration. In many ways, from the 1980s through the early 2000s, immigrants and their children have contributed to both the growth and diversity of the nation'due south younger population—nevertheless, more recently, natural increase rather than immigration is the primary source of Latino or Hispanic population growth.

This has led to stark generational differences in diverseness. Almost 60% of the U.Due south. population identifies every bit white lonely; that figure reaches more than 70% for baby boomers and their elders, only just about half for the combined Gen Z and younger populations, with nearly two-fifths of those groups identifying as "Black or chocolate-brown."

These generational differences are important for public and private sector planning, peculiarly with respect to the needs of the increasingly diverse younger population. The generational divide in diversity also fosters what I take called a "cultural generation gap," which has impacted politics in ways that are sometimes divisive. It is important to empathise that as these younger, various generations age, their tastes, values, and political orientations will go the nation's "mainstream." As we enter 2021, the offset millennials take already turned age twoscore.

Clearing is essential for countering farther stagnation

The higher up analyses make patently that the nation is in the midst of unprecedented demographic stagnation. Much of this is attributable to lower fertility rates and increased mortality associated with an aging population. The COVID-19 pandemic is certainly accentuating this pattern.

Nonetheless even earlier the pandemic, census-based population projections suggested future population growth levels that lie well below those the nation has previously experienced.  The main projection suggests that if current trajectories of fertility, mortality, and immigration persist, U.South. population growth between 2020 and 2060 would be 22% (to 404 1000000 people). That is one-half the 44% growth rate of the previous four decades.

This projection assumes an annual immigration level roughly twice that of the yr before the pandemic. If that lower clearing level were to persist, growth from 2020 to 2060 would be reduced to just 14% (376 million people) for an average annual growth rate of 0.32%. (A projection assuming zero clearing would lead to a net decline in the U.S. population over that 40-twelvemonth period.)

An fifty-fifty larger consequence of lower immigration would be a stagnating youth population. Under the Census Bureau'due south main projection, between 2020 and 2035, the nation's under-eighteen population would grow by 4%. But under its depression-immigration projection, there would be zero growth in the under-eighteen population. In both projections, the over-65 population would abound by at least 38%.

1 way to secure more rapid growth of the youth population would be to increase immigration to three times the electric current level. Under this scenario, the youth population would increment its growth to 9% over the next 15 years.

These alternative projections show that given our rapidly aging native-born population, clearing will ensure growth—peculiarly among the disquisitional youth and labor force populations

Awaiting the 2020 census

Equally the total 2020 demography results are released over the class of this year, we will gain a more thorough understanding of national population trends, with bully detail for communities across the country. Simply other available data already reveals the broader picture: We are condign a country with historically low population growth, rapid crumbling, and greater racial and ethnic diversity, especially among the nation's youth.

Beyond confronting the COVID-19 crisis and fallout, the next decade will bring with it new challenges and opportunities in dealing with greater age dependency, increasing racial and ethnic harmony, and resolving spatial disparities—all in the context of a less demographically dynamic nation. It will besides call for increased attending to the function of immigration to counter even further stagnation.

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Source: https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-the-2020-census-will-reveal-about-america-stagnating-growth-an-aging-population-and-youthful-diversity/

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